An elderly gent was invited to an old friend's home for dinner one evening. He was impressed by the way his buddy preceded every request to his wife with endearing terms such as: Darling, Honey, My Love, Pumpkin, Sweetheart, etc.
The couple had been married almost 70 years and, clearly, they were still very much in love.
While the wife was in the kitchen, the man leaned over to his host, and said: "I think it's wonderful that, after all these years, you still call your wife those loving pet names."
The old man hung his head. "I have to tell you the truth," he said. "Her name slipped my mind about 10 years a go, -- and I'm scared to death to ask the old bitch what it is."
This is going around the desks today
posted by Peter Greene
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Government Healthcare Failing Worldwide
Why should we be copying Government Healthcare...Look at this article about how Canada's system is breaking down and looking for a private option to save it...We have a private system now, learn from the neighbours in the north and stop this BEFORE we are in the same boat
Overhauling health-care system tops agenda at annual meeting of Canada's doctors
By Jennifer Graham (CP) – 3 days ago
SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
Dr. Anne Doig says patients are getting less than optimal care and she adds that physicians from across the country - who will gather in Saskatoon on Sunday for their annual meeting - recognize that changes must be made.
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press.
"We know that there must be change," she said. "We're all running flat out, we're all just trying to stay ahead of the immediate day-to-day demands."
The pitch for change at the conference is to start with a presentation from Dr. Robert Ouellet, the current president of the CMA, who has said there's a critical need to make Canada's health-care system patient-centred. He will present details from his fact-finding trip to Europe in January, where he met with health groups in England, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands and France.
His thoughts on the issue are already clear. Ouellet has been saying since his return that "a health-care revolution has passed us by," that it's possible to make wait lists disappear while maintaining universal coverage and "that competition should be welcomed, not feared."
In other words, Ouellet believes there could be a role for private health-care delivery within the public system.
He has also said the Canadian system could be restructured to focus on patients if hospitals and other health-care institutions received funding based on the patients they treat, instead of an annual, lump-sum budget. This "activity-based funding" would be an incentive to provide more efficient care, he has said.
Doig says she doesn't know what a proposed "blueprint" toward patient-centred care might look like when the meeting wraps up Wednesday. She'd like to emerge with clear directions about where the association should focus efforts to direct change over the next few years. She also wants to see short-term, medium-term and long-term goals laid out.
"A short-term achievable goal would be to accelerate the process of getting electronic medical records into physicians' offices," she said. "That's one I think ought to be a priority and ought to be achievable."
A long-term goal would be getting health systems "talking to each other," so information can be quickly shared to help patients.
Doig, who has had a full-time family practice in Saskatoon for 30 years, acknowledges that when physicians have talked about changing the health-care system in the past, they've been accused of wanting an American-style structure. She insists that's not the case.
"It's not about choosing between an American system or a Canadian system," said Doig. "The whole thing is about looking at what other people do."
"That's called looking at the evidence, looking at how care is delivered and how care is paid for all around us (and) then saying 'Well, OK, that's good information. How do we make all of that work in the Canadian context? What do the Canadian people want?' "
Doig says there are some "very good things" about Canada's health-care system, but she points out that many people have stories about times when things didn't go well for them or their family.
"(Canadians) have to understand that the system that we have right now - if it keeps on going without change - is not sustainable," said Doig.
"They have to look at the evidence that's being presented and will be presented at (the meeting) and realize what Canada's doctors are trying to tell you, that you can get better care than what you're getting and we all have to participate in the discussion around how do we do that and of course how do we pay for it."
Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
posted by Peter Greene
Overhauling health-care system tops agenda at annual meeting of Canada's doctors
By Jennifer Graham (CP) – 3 days ago
SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
Dr. Anne Doig says patients are getting less than optimal care and she adds that physicians from across the country - who will gather in Saskatoon on Sunday for their annual meeting - recognize that changes must be made.
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press.
"We know that there must be change," she said. "We're all running flat out, we're all just trying to stay ahead of the immediate day-to-day demands."
The pitch for change at the conference is to start with a presentation from Dr. Robert Ouellet, the current president of the CMA, who has said there's a critical need to make Canada's health-care system patient-centred. He will present details from his fact-finding trip to Europe in January, where he met with health groups in England, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands and France.
His thoughts on the issue are already clear. Ouellet has been saying since his return that "a health-care revolution has passed us by," that it's possible to make wait lists disappear while maintaining universal coverage and "that competition should be welcomed, not feared."
In other words, Ouellet believes there could be a role for private health-care delivery within the public system.
He has also said the Canadian system could be restructured to focus on patients if hospitals and other health-care institutions received funding based on the patients they treat, instead of an annual, lump-sum budget. This "activity-based funding" would be an incentive to provide more efficient care, he has said.
Doig says she doesn't know what a proposed "blueprint" toward patient-centred care might look like when the meeting wraps up Wednesday. She'd like to emerge with clear directions about where the association should focus efforts to direct change over the next few years. She also wants to see short-term, medium-term and long-term goals laid out.
"A short-term achievable goal would be to accelerate the process of getting electronic medical records into physicians' offices," she said. "That's one I think ought to be a priority and ought to be achievable."
A long-term goal would be getting health systems "talking to each other," so information can be quickly shared to help patients.
Doig, who has had a full-time family practice in Saskatoon for 30 years, acknowledges that when physicians have talked about changing the health-care system in the past, they've been accused of wanting an American-style structure. She insists that's not the case.
"It's not about choosing between an American system or a Canadian system," said Doig. "The whole thing is about looking at what other people do."
"That's called looking at the evidence, looking at how care is delivered and how care is paid for all around us (and) then saying 'Well, OK, that's good information. How do we make all of that work in the Canadian context? What do the Canadian people want?' "
Doig says there are some "very good things" about Canada's health-care system, but she points out that many people have stories about times when things didn't go well for them or their family.
"(Canadians) have to understand that the system that we have right now - if it keeps on going without change - is not sustainable," said Doig.
"They have to look at the evidence that's being presented and will be presented at (the meeting) and realize what Canada's doctors are trying to tell you, that you can get better care than what you're getting and we all have to participate in the discussion around how do we do that and of course how do we pay for it."
Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
posted by Peter Greene
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Firm's S&P note
As seen in the S&P 500 research note the index ran into resistance at the 1,020 level but this is still well above its recent range breakout spot near the 950/930 area. So at this point while prices are drifting keeping things in perspective we are still in the middle of a higher level trader range (930/950 to 1,020) after spending the earlier part of the summer locked in the 850 to 950/930 range.
The recent weakness is a combination of the late summer doldrums and a mean reversion of the S&P 500’s 15.20 % run up (measured from its’ recent high from its low on 7/10). Anecdotal sentiment has investors still doubting the rally, under invested and extremely cautious. While this kind of sentiment exists it is hard to expect anything more than a minor pullback (5% – 7 %).
While late summer and fall seasonality trends typically line up in the negative return camp it appears that so many investors are relying on it as gospel that maybe it won’t happen this year.
posted by Peter Greene
The recent weakness is a combination of the late summer doldrums and a mean reversion of the S&P 500’s 15.20 % run up (measured from its’ recent high from its low on 7/10). Anecdotal sentiment has investors still doubting the rally, under invested and extremely cautious. While this kind of sentiment exists it is hard to expect anything more than a minor pullback (5% – 7 %).
While late summer and fall seasonality trends typically line up in the negative return camp it appears that so many investors are relying on it as gospel that maybe it won’t happen this year.
posted by Peter Greene
Monday, August 17, 2009
Firm's morning comments
Markets look to open weaker this morning as investors worry stocks have come too far, too fast. The headline story on CNN.com reads, Stocks headed for sharp fall while on Yahoo Finance their lead story reads Stocks Futures Point to Plunge on Wall Street. All of it sounds a bit dramatic if you ask me, but that is what the media is about reporting what is happening not what may happen.
Certainly given we are in the late summer vacation season and stocks have had a good run in July there is the likelihood for a pullback, However is it anything more at this point than just a retrenchment of the recent rally or are we really headed for a plunge or a sharp fall ? Again it seems a bit premature and dramatic to say that at this juncture. Stocks ebb and flow. Traders overreact on the upside and the downside.
Under the surface of these silly headlines things still remain pretty much the same; liquidity is very strong, investors by and large remain under invested even after a rally of significant magnitude, sentiment while a bit more bullish is not a problem yet and valuations while richer than they were say a few months back still remain constructive.
Actually the headline that caught our eye this morning the most was CalSTRS (The California State Teachers Retirement Fund) is reducing exposure to equities into this rally. Now while we are sure there are many smart people at CalSTRS the fact that they are reducing equities actually makes us more comfortable that the bull trend will resume after a pause. After all CalSTRS like many pensions preached the passive BUY and HOLD strategy forever and got burnt in 2001/2002 and again in 2008 so they do not actually have a great history when it comes to making investment decisions. Now after all these years they are changing their investment mantra and trying to be proactive. Ironically this sounds like a reactive decision after years of making bad moves.
This headline just becomes another part of the sentiment puzzle which outlines how investors keep doubting the recovery and remain scared of stocks. While there are obvious issues about the tenure and durability of the recovery the more doubting thomases that line up the more likely the market is to confound them. There is a reason the old adage, the market exists to confound the majority and reward the minority has been around for a long time - because it typically holds true !
Expect some weakness near term - support on the S&P 500 remains below the market in the 950 area.
Look for a more detailed technical note tomorrow.
posted by Peter Greene
Certainly given we are in the late summer vacation season and stocks have had a good run in July there is the likelihood for a pullback, However is it anything more at this point than just a retrenchment of the recent rally or are we really headed for a plunge or a sharp fall ? Again it seems a bit premature and dramatic to say that at this juncture. Stocks ebb and flow. Traders overreact on the upside and the downside.
Under the surface of these silly headlines things still remain pretty much the same; liquidity is very strong, investors by and large remain under invested even after a rally of significant magnitude, sentiment while a bit more bullish is not a problem yet and valuations while richer than they were say a few months back still remain constructive.
Actually the headline that caught our eye this morning the most was CalSTRS (The California State Teachers Retirement Fund) is reducing exposure to equities into this rally. Now while we are sure there are many smart people at CalSTRS the fact that they are reducing equities actually makes us more comfortable that the bull trend will resume after a pause. After all CalSTRS like many pensions preached the passive BUY and HOLD strategy forever and got burnt in 2001/2002 and again in 2008 so they do not actually have a great history when it comes to making investment decisions. Now after all these years they are changing their investment mantra and trying to be proactive. Ironically this sounds like a reactive decision after years of making bad moves.
This headline just becomes another part of the sentiment puzzle which outlines how investors keep doubting the recovery and remain scared of stocks. While there are obvious issues about the tenure and durability of the recovery the more doubting thomases that line up the more likely the market is to confound them. There is a reason the old adage, the market exists to confound the majority and reward the minority has been around for a long time - because it typically holds true !
Expect some weakness near term - support on the S&P 500 remains below the market in the 950 area.
Look for a more detailed technical note tomorrow.
posted by Peter Greene
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
FOMC Overview from the firm
In contrast with the last FOMC meeting, the August meeting should provide a forward-looking statement that will signal the central bank's next step toward winding down its quantitative easing program.
Some salient points:
· U.S. monetary policy will remain on hold for an extended period.
· The Federal Reserve is not monetizing the federal debt.
· The commercial real estate sector is a growing concern.
The Fed will acknowledge improvement in the economy and the probability of stronger than expected growth in the third quarter, but carefully outline downside risks to both growth and inflation. The committee will maintain its commitment to keeping rates low for an extended period. Policy normalization will be difficult. Improving financial conditions and the pickup in real activity have stimulated demand for an early exit from financial markets. The timing, pace and sequence of policy normalization will have important implications for asset markets. The Fed is aware of the policy missteps it made in 1937, and those of the Japanese central bank in 1997 and 2000 that prematurely terminated economic recoveries.
Deflationary risk, potential problems in the commercial real estate sector and more stress in financial markets should cause policy normalization to proceed in a drawn-out fashion. Moreover, the risk that domestic political tensions will constrain future fiscal stimulus should ensure the central bank moves carefully before articulating an explicit exit strategy.
The FOMC acknowledged in its June minutes that it did not extend its asset purchase program out of fear this would be interpreted as a monetization of U.S. federal debt. The normalization of financial markets has given the central bank leeway to let some of its temporary liquidity programs expire. The Fed is likely to address its $300 billion asset purchase program which is about to expire. The Fed has purchased $243 billion in medium- to long-term Treasuries since the March 18 FOMC meeting. Although the program will end, one would expect the statement will provide enough space for the central bank to re-enter markets again should the financial sector experience more turmoil in the near term.
Some Risks - End the TARP but extend the TALF?
The FOMC will note the improvement but also emphasize risks to the spending outlook. While the improvement in productivity is desirable, firms obtained it by squeezing more out of a reduced workforce. Employee hours fell 7.6% in the second quarter. Outside of a modest increase in hours worked inside the July payroll data, the prospects for wage stabilization remain difficult.
Moreover, the increased prospects for growth in the current quarter come with a risk. The policy success of the auto subsidies is likely to shift consumption that would have occurred over the next several months to the current quarter. In addition, the inventory restocking contains its own risk. It is not yet certain that demand, due to the decline in wage income, is sufficient to absorb the increase in production observed in the current quarter.
Other risks include the shutdown of the $700 billion CMBS market since September 2008. In June, the central bank expanded its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to include up to $100 billion in commercial mortgage-backed assets. While the asset purchase program will be allowed to expire, it is increasingly likely that the TALF program will have to be extended to address issues in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.
Thus, the Fed will be reluctant to rule out additional liquidity measures to address possible turmoil in commercial real estate or additional stress in the banking industry. Commercial real estate prices fell 27% on an annualized basis through March 31 of this year. In contrast with the TED spread and Libor rates, options-adjusted CMBS spreads over Treasuries remain near levels seen at the peak of the crisis. Falling prices and an inability to roll over CMBS may require further unorthodox steps from the central bank.
posted by Peter Greene
Some salient points:
· U.S. monetary policy will remain on hold for an extended period.
· The Federal Reserve is not monetizing the federal debt.
· The commercial real estate sector is a growing concern.
The Fed will acknowledge improvement in the economy and the probability of stronger than expected growth in the third quarter, but carefully outline downside risks to both growth and inflation. The committee will maintain its commitment to keeping rates low for an extended period. Policy normalization will be difficult. Improving financial conditions and the pickup in real activity have stimulated demand for an early exit from financial markets. The timing, pace and sequence of policy normalization will have important implications for asset markets. The Fed is aware of the policy missteps it made in 1937, and those of the Japanese central bank in 1997 and 2000 that prematurely terminated economic recoveries.
Deflationary risk, potential problems in the commercial real estate sector and more stress in financial markets should cause policy normalization to proceed in a drawn-out fashion. Moreover, the risk that domestic political tensions will constrain future fiscal stimulus should ensure the central bank moves carefully before articulating an explicit exit strategy.
The FOMC acknowledged in its June minutes that it did not extend its asset purchase program out of fear this would be interpreted as a monetization of U.S. federal debt. The normalization of financial markets has given the central bank leeway to let some of its temporary liquidity programs expire. The Fed is likely to address its $300 billion asset purchase program which is about to expire. The Fed has purchased $243 billion in medium- to long-term Treasuries since the March 18 FOMC meeting. Although the program will end, one would expect the statement will provide enough space for the central bank to re-enter markets again should the financial sector experience more turmoil in the near term.
Some Risks - End the TARP but extend the TALF?
The FOMC will note the improvement but also emphasize risks to the spending outlook. While the improvement in productivity is desirable, firms obtained it by squeezing more out of a reduced workforce. Employee hours fell 7.6% in the second quarter. Outside of a modest increase in hours worked inside the July payroll data, the prospects for wage stabilization remain difficult.
Moreover, the increased prospects for growth in the current quarter come with a risk. The policy success of the auto subsidies is likely to shift consumption that would have occurred over the next several months to the current quarter. In addition, the inventory restocking contains its own risk. It is not yet certain that demand, due to the decline in wage income, is sufficient to absorb the increase in production observed in the current quarter.
Other risks include the shutdown of the $700 billion CMBS market since September 2008. In June, the central bank expanded its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to include up to $100 billion in commercial mortgage-backed assets. While the asset purchase program will be allowed to expire, it is increasingly likely that the TALF program will have to be extended to address issues in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.
Thus, the Fed will be reluctant to rule out additional liquidity measures to address possible turmoil in commercial real estate or additional stress in the banking industry. Commercial real estate prices fell 27% on an annualized basis through March 31 of this year. In contrast with the TED spread and Libor rates, options-adjusted CMBS spreads over Treasuries remain near levels seen at the peak of the crisis. Falling prices and an inability to roll over CMBS may require further unorthodox steps from the central bank.
posted by Peter Greene
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Recent firm morning note
Almost like a broken record for the last two weeks we have proposed the idea that the market would keep working higher because investor sentiment was more cautious or doubting than embracing suggestive that many investors still had not deployed a lot of capital.
Over the last several trading sessions this thesis has played out. However what is even more encouraging now is this rally has started to broaden out more. Originally it was predominantly tech and commodity based names leading the charge however in the last few sessions the banks and the cyclicals are starting to catch a bid again as are the transports.
Internals on yesterday's advance once again had a bullish tone with up to down volume on the NASDAQ scoring a ratio of 5.2 to 1, with nearly 2.5 stocks advancing for every one that declined. Over on the NYSE the internals were even stronger with up volume besting down volume by a ratio of 8.69 to 1 with 4.75 stocks advancing to every one that declined.
As the rally has accelerated more aggressively of late the total equity/index put call ratio has slipped suggesting more calls are being purchased than puts. This is not an overly bullish backdrop, however it is a shorter-term indicator as opposed to a more secular indicator. Additionally AAII Bull Sentiment also rose recently to a reading of 47 % last week. While neither of these numbers are alarming just yet as they continue to rise so does the probability of a pullback.
However the overwhelmingly positive market breadth figures and bullish sideline liquidity trump sentiment for the time being and pullbacks remain buying opportunities until sideline cash dries up.
Today we will get another look at AAII Bull Sentiment figures and are expecting a bit of a spike. With the summer vacation schedule picking up steam the market could pause here a bit as for Portfolio managers, the largest net buyers of equities take a temporary siesta.
posted by Peter Greene
Over the last several trading sessions this thesis has played out. However what is even more encouraging now is this rally has started to broaden out more. Originally it was predominantly tech and commodity based names leading the charge however in the last few sessions the banks and the cyclicals are starting to catch a bid again as are the transports.
Internals on yesterday's advance once again had a bullish tone with up to down volume on the NASDAQ scoring a ratio of 5.2 to 1, with nearly 2.5 stocks advancing for every one that declined. Over on the NYSE the internals were even stronger with up volume besting down volume by a ratio of 8.69 to 1 with 4.75 stocks advancing to every one that declined.
As the rally has accelerated more aggressively of late the total equity/index put call ratio has slipped suggesting more calls are being purchased than puts. This is not an overly bullish backdrop, however it is a shorter-term indicator as opposed to a more secular indicator. Additionally AAII Bull Sentiment also rose recently to a reading of 47 % last week. While neither of these numbers are alarming just yet as they continue to rise so does the probability of a pullback.
However the overwhelmingly positive market breadth figures and bullish sideline liquidity trump sentiment for the time being and pullbacks remain buying opportunities until sideline cash dries up.
Today we will get another look at AAII Bull Sentiment figures and are expecting a bit of a spike. With the summer vacation schedule picking up steam the market could pause here a bit as for Portfolio managers, the largest net buyers of equities take a temporary siesta.
posted by Peter Greene
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