Friday, August 15, 2008

Lazy Dayz of Summer

So it's a summer Friday in August and I think I am the only loser in the universe at work....then a co-work (Barry) sends me his latest WSJ interview...

August 15, 2008, 2:03 pm
No Labor Until Labor Day
Posted by MarketBeat Staff
Annelena Lobb reports:
Around this time of year, Wall Street typically likes to get out of town.
“The last two to three weeks in August – it’s vacation time, take your kid to college time, take Fridays off time – and definitely, it happens year after year,” said Jim Awad, chairman of W.P. Stewart Asset Management. “I happen to be out in the Hamptons, and every investment professional I know is out here and will be here through Labor Day.”
Looking for your broker? Start in the orange area. (Wikipedia)
But some say Wall Streeters’ flashy vacations have been scaled back this year, even if they’re not quite taking a ’staycation.’ (Getting folks in the 212 area code on the phone took a few more tries than usual.)
“I thought my train today was the emptiest I’ve seen,” said Barry Ritholtz, CEO and director of research at FusionIQ, “but for most of the summer, the trains have been packed. The whole economy is showing some pressure,” he said. “Wall Street is a huge employer in New York, and there’s no doubt Wall Street is under pressure.” Lighter fourth of July traffic, an unusual ease in scoring dinner reservations at smart restaurants, and more yachts in the marina, rather than on the waterways, all point to a muted summer for the Wall Street crowd, he said. “Then you walk by a Chipotle and there are lines down the street,” Mr. Ritholtz added.
Despite the vacation mentality, August isn’t necessarily a quiet month for stock markets. In August of 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally began to rouse itself from a long and deep slide. Another turning point came in August of 1987, when the Dow hit a peak after a stretch of big gains. Black Monday came a few months later.
“I don’t think there is a typical August — [but there can be] big inflection points in the market,” said Steve Shobin, of AmeriCap Advisers.
Last August, of course, brought the dawn of the credit crunch. So traders are still a little nervous this year, Mr. Awad said, even if they’re on vacation. “People are staying in touch,” he said.
Mr. Shobin, though, expects relatively wishy-washy, range-bound trade for now. “We’re torn between a couple variables – most people think that a lot of the financial structural problems are on their way to recovery, but aren’t so sure about the economy.” And a break lately in the price of oil “hasn’t lit a fire” under stocks, he notes — perhaps a worrisome sign. “Still, I think we’ve accumulated enough good will that we’re not going to break down sharply,” he said. “But there was no reaction to a powerful catalyst. We could be in for a lethargic mid- to late summer.”
From the point of view of a vacationer, perhaps, that’s not so bad.
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Yahoo! Buzz Share on Facebook Del.icio.us Annelena Lobb reports:
Around this time of year, Wall Street typically likes to get out of town.
“The last two to three weeks in August – it’s vacation time, take your kid to college time, take Fridays off time – and definitely, it happens year after year,” said Jim Awad, chairman of W.P. Stewart Asset Management. […]
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