More of the Same

The markets continued in the range bound levels we have been talking about (hope we are not boring you). The S&P 500 rallied until it was slightly above our range high of 850; then fell to a low above our low of the range 825 (actual high 851.85, low 829.18). We see more of the same until there is a catalyst to break one way or another...this may be the Friday Payroll numbers

Some of our trading ideas continue to be: long RIMM (up in a down market again); short WMT (3 cents off a 52 week low yesterday) but WMT may get a bump if the sales data is higher-just watch for too much discounting, UPS (the “intraday levels from yesterday worked like a champ, wish they all worked that well), FDX (down 1.58). A couple other names mentioned this week; WYNN (sell signal on 2/2/09 and we suggested if it broke the levels to short it...down 2.59 yesterday); DRYS & FSYS also mentioned new sell, but to watch for a break first and they have not broken yet.

Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday morning (from Barry Ritholtz)
We are likely to see another ugly NFP report on Friday. The early data points ain’t pretty:

Layoffs: Challenger job layoffs surged to 242k in January — the highest level for a month since 2002. The monthly rise was +75k and year over year, the increase in layoffs was 165k.

ADP Report: 522k jobs lost in January, consistent with consensus expectations. ( Barry also mentioned that the ADP report has been unreliable) .

I am looking for another 500k plus job loss (potentially as high as 700k) and unemployment ticking up to 7.8%



posted by Peter Greene

More problems for Personel in DC???

The White House's nominee for director of the CIA, Leon Panetta, has earned more than $700,000 in speaking and consulting fees since the beginning of 2008, with some of the payments coming from troubled banks and an investment firm that owns companies that do business with federal national security agencies. Panetta is set to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday about his nomination

from WSJ


posted by Peter Greene

Ciaran Happy B-DAY

posted by Peter Greene

An actual up day yesterday

The move on UPS and the others in that sector were impressive yesterday. As you know we have been bearish on this group for a few weeks and overall the ideas have panned out. Although HUBG & FWRD continue to hold in much better than FDX and UPS.

We are still bearish on the names (although from a trading point of view we would suggest shorting into strength - around 45.80ish on UPS with a tight stop) until a move outside the downtrend. (Expect the research houses to upgrade; always worth a nice bounce too...

The markets ended a three day slide with the pending home sales news; the feeling out on the street that some of the banks toxic assets will be guaranteed by the Obama spending plan may help to move financials up again just like last Wednesday. Although we expect a move higher in the market, the volume has not followed yet (we will need to remember to cover all shorts when this happens as the mass buying will, for a time, take all names higher).

click on chart to view larger

posted by Peter Greene

Senate lacks votes on huge spending bill

POLITICS: [WASHINGTON POST] - 4-Feb-09 7:48 AM
Majority leaders concede they lack the votes to pass the stimulus bill as currently written, will try to trim $900B plan to gain GOP support. ...


posted by Peter Greene

Stock move higher on home sales news

The averages are moderately higher after the pending home sales report came in better than expected. It showed that U.S. home sales were stronger in the South and the Midwest. CNBC reported that the high end housing market has been ravaged by the stock sell off, showing that homes valued at $750,000 or more plunged by 47% in the year ending in November. But homes valued at $400,000 or less fell just 3% during that same time period. The housing sector is strong today with the housing ETF up more than 6.5%.



posted by Peter Greene

YO-YO markets

Yesterday's intraday swings are almost enough to drive even the most serious trader crazy. The trading levels we have been looking at (as you should know from Kevin Lane's pieces last week) are in the SPZ 825 to 850. The one day move last wed turned out to be the "head fake" we thought it was, also as yesterday’s market open to the down side may have been too. (See chart on page 3). The SPZ came down and flirted above MAJOR support at 805/808, all the black boxes, etc started buying ahead of that level. Guess what? We closed at 825.

This is a frustrating time for many investors and many of our newer institutional accounts too. They all want the answer to which way, up or do??? Answer is BOTH. Our more active accounts are enjoying the swings with shorter term ideas (some intra-day).

posted by Peter Greene